Chip Griffin: Pardon the Disruption

FEC May Issue Reasonable Rules

The Chicago Tribune reports on the FEC's latest plans for regulating online political activity.  And, at least as sketched out in this report, the proposal seems reasonable since it seeks to mimic "real world" requirements in cyberspace.

Web loggers, who pride themselves on freewheeling political activism, might face new federal rules on candidate endorsements, online fundraising and political ads, though bloggers who don't take money from political groups would not be affected.

Draft rules from the Federal Election Commission, which enforces campaign finance laws, would require that paid political advertisements on the Internet declare who funded the ad, as television spots do.

Similar disclaimers would be placed on political Web sites, as well as on e-mails sent to people on purchased lists containing more than 500 addresses. The FEC also is considering whether to require Web loggers, called bloggers, to disclose whether they get money from a campaign committee or a candidate and to reveal whether they are being paid to write about certain candidates or solicit contributions on their behalf.

Advocacy Ad Agency Launched

An intriguing press release crossed the wire recently:

Next Generation Advertising, LLC, a new, non-traditional advertising company, has opened its doors.  The company, based in the nation's capital, will be one of the first to produce online "virtual" public policy campaigns.  The firm is founded by former ABC and Fox News Producer Richard Pollock ...

The company also will apply video, audio and animation to traditional fields where rich media has not been considered, such as investor relations, advocacy, fundraising and membership relations.

Now, I don't know Mr. Pollock, but I'm sure he's a very capabale indivudal.  The team he has put together sounds impressive.  But there's a large disconnect between what's in the release and what the company's web site describes.  The web site does little to emphasy the advocacy nature of the business -- hopefully that's just an oversight because the idea behind the company is intriguing. 

It will be interesting to see if such a narrowly focused approach is a sustainable business model.

Seth Godin on Politics

Seth Godin is usually known for his marketing advice.  But that's fundamentally what politics ends up being all about anyway, isn't it?  In assessing a debate between David Keene and Ralph Neas over judicial nominations, he determines that Keene was believeable and on message, while Neas sounded "like a Moot Court debater."  (For you lawyers out there, that isn't actually a compliment.)

He reaches the following conclusion, which is good advice in politics and marketing:

You're never going to persuade everyone of anything. What you can do, though, is persuade the persuadable, persuade the people who are choosing to listen and are open to believing the story you want to tell.

Scoble, Ballmer and RSS

Microsoft's Robert Scoble frequently offers good insight and great links.  But I'm afraid today his wife may be right.  When he blogged today about "the world" I can only hope he intended to say "my world."

RSS has totally changed how I work and how I get my information. In that sense, RSS has changed the world already and everything that comes now is gravy.

Don't get me wrong, RSS is great.  I publish it and consume it.  In fact, one of the companies I founded, CustomScoop, recently added the ability to consume and publish RSS feeds of news clips and related information intelligence.  It allows customers of that service to use it as a central monitoring platform -- and to easily import reports into Outlook using Newsgator.

For me, RSS has made it easier to read lots of interesting information I might otherwise miss.  In fact, I rely on Scoble and Steve Rubel, among others, to keep me up to speed on developments I should be aware of.

But RSS isn't a widely used technology.  It still services mostly geeks like us.  Which is great -- and we can serve as a megaphone for news and get it out to more people.

But RSS hasn't changed the world.  And Steve Ballmer may be right that it never will.  I've addressed the problems with RSS in the past.  I still think the concept holds promise for wider adoption, but the implementation has to become a whole lot easier.  Which is why it is good to hear that Microsoft is looking at the next generation of the idea.

How Valuable is an Old Email List?

Kari Chisholm and Taegan Goddard both have pointed to a report in The Hill that credits John Kerry with a big advatnage because of his 3 million name email list.  Kerry's 2004 Finance Chair boasts:

“There is a zero marginal cost to communicate with them,” Randlett said of voters in Kerry’s database. “He can wait much longer [to decide to run for president] and suffer a much lower degradation of his base."

I agree the marginal cost is low (though not zero), but the claim about degradation of the base is pure baloney.  Owning a mailing list of past supporters does not guarantee that they will be future supporters.  Certainly, it's an asset to have, but it would only permit a delayed entry if a large portion of those people could be assured to be with him in the next primary.

How many of those names were there before he was the Democrat nominee?  The names that he picked up during the primary might be considered a base, but the general election names only preferred him over Bush ... not necessarily over any other Democrat.

For example, of those 3 million, how many are also on Howard Dean's list?  Or John Edwards'?

Email lists from previous campaigns are valuable, but they'll only take you so far, especially in presidential politics where voters tend to be more fickle.

Blog Influence Overblown?

Kate Kaye blogs about a new Pew study on blog influence:

Bloggers are often touted as influential instigators, feeding buzz-worthy topics to the mainstream media they so disdain, and even guiding discussion in other communication channels. Not so, says a new study analyzing the impact of political blogs on the national conversation leading up to the 2004 presidential election. Indeed, Buzz, Blogs, and Beyond: The Internet and the National Discourse in the Fall of 2004 concludes that, while a force to be reckoned with, blogs are merely cogs in the meme machine.

All too often advocates of new technologies are blinded by their promise.  The Internet, blogs, podcasts and the like all have an impact -- and will have an increasing impact over time.  But it is far too early to say that blogs fundamentally change the dynamics of politics altogether.

Online Ads About to Take Off?

MediaPost reports:

POLITICAL CANDIDATES ARE STARTING TO believe that online advertising allows them far greater opportunities to extend reach and target constituents than do traditional ad campaigns, said panelists Monday at a conference in New York City sponsored by Personal Democracy Forum, a Web site dedicated to examining how technology and the Internet are changing American politics. What's more, politicos will continue to spend more online in the next election, predicted the panelists

Mayor Bloomberg Launches 100k Online Ad Buy

The New York Daily News reports:

Television will have to wait: Mayor Bloomberg is launching a $100,000, five-week Internet advertising blitz aimed at recruiting tens of thousand of volunteers, the Daily News has learned ...

The campaign currently has 6,000 volunteers, and it's aiming to recruit a record 50,000.

(Thanks to Kari Chisholm at Politics and Technology for pointing out this article.)

Major Conservative Group Ditches MeetUp.com

Townhall.com has announced they are ditching MeetUp.com and building their own service.  As one of the largest conservative grassroots groups working with MeetUp, it is a major tangible sign the new billing policy may not be working.

Effective this Thursday, Townhall.com will officially end its relationship with Meetup.com.  In place of Meetup, Townhall will begin developing a custom solution to better cater to the needs of our Townhall Meetup members and organizers

1 of 4 Adults Prefers Online News

The Center for Media Research reports via email today that:

According to JupiterResearch, the number of online adults who prefer the Internet as their main source of news has grown over 35% in the last four years, at the expense of television and newspapers. Currently, over 26% of online adults prefer the Internet for national and international news, compared to 19% in 2001.

Rove Says Internet Will Decide SocSec Debate

Interesting report from UPI today:

White House adviser Karl Rove said in a recent conference call that Internet lobbying by young grassroots Republicans will make or break the Bush administration's proposals to revamp the pension program, just as the technology helped get out the vote last fall during the presidential campaign.

Blogging for Dollars

The Washington Post today covers the latest discussion about how to regulate political bloggers (if at all).  It seems that everyone is in agreement that most  should not be subject to FEC regulation, but there remains one sticky area yet to address: bloggers paid by campaigns.

Most are familiar with the "paid for by ..." line that appears on ads, direct mail, and such.  Even the web sites of candidates carry such a line.

Should bloggers paid by campaigns have to issue a similar disclosure?

Trevor Potter, a former FEC commissioner, said as a practical matter it would often be difficult to distinguish between those who have been hired to blog and those who have been hired for some other reason -- to help run a campaign's Internet operations, for example -- and, as is increasingly the case these days, also happen to have a blog.

Bloggers often like to hold themselves out as journalists.  For those who do, one would expect them to disclose as a matter of ethics -- whether they were paid specifically to blog or not.  Regardless, it would be reasonable for the FEC to require individuals paid by a campaign to blog to disclose it, just as they would disclose printing mail, running ads, or creating their own web site.

NYC Candidate Initiaties Online Ads

NY candidate starts agressive online ad buy, according to MediaPost:

ANDREW RASIEJ, ONE OF THE challengers to New York City Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum, has turned to the Internet to promote his candidacy in the Democratic primary this September. His campaign went live Monday on over 20 New York City blogs, NYTimes.com, New York Magazine's Web site, and a handful of influential progressive political blogs.

Internet as 3rd Party Launching Pad?

The LA Times' Ron Brownstein offers his view of the Internet as a possible launching pad for a national candidacy:

The Internet could allow an independent candidate to more easily identify an audience and financial base, just as it has allowed blogs like the liberal Daily Kos or conservative InstaPundit to find a community of like-minded readers. More precisely, the Internet has allowed readers to find those blogs. And because the audience mostly finds the product, rather than the other way around, the cost of entering the market is radically reduced.

... imagine the options available to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) if he doesn't win the 2008 Republican nomination, and former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska, now that he's dropped his flirtation with running for mayor of New York. If the two Vietnam veterans joined for an all-maverick independent ticket, they might inspire a gold rush of online support — and make the two national parties the latest example of the Internet's ability to threaten seemingly impregnable institutions.

One must remember, however, that the Internet is a tool in the political arsenal.  It may change tactics, but it does not fundamentally change the principles of politics.  It cannot alter the belief systems of millions of Americans.

The Internet provides a highly effective (and often cost effective) medium with which to communicate.  It is a method of message delivery, not a message itself.