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February 2008

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

I Need a Better Tripod

Full Moon Before Lunar Eclipse

I managed to get a decent photo of the full moon before the lunar eclipse tonight, but by the time the full eclipse showed itself, the moon was high enough in the sky that I couldn't get my tripod to lock into position for a long enough exposure to get a good shot of it.

And that's what I get for not investing in a good tripod. You can bet that will be next on my photography acquisition list. And soon because this is not the first time I haven't gotten good results from this tripod, it is just the most disappointing.

An OK shot of the early stages of the lunar eclipse is below.

Partial Lunar Eclipse

UPDATE: For what it is worth, below is the best shot I was able to get of the full eclipse:

Lunar Eclipse

Is College an Entitlement? Are Student Loans Bad?

Flipping around my television for a mental break this afternoon, I stumbled across former CNN anchor Frank Sesno moderating a panel at George Washington University (my apologies to American University President Neil Kerwin who would likely prefer that I refer to it as "that other Washington school"). My idea of mental floss (to borrow a phrase from Brad Feld) may be a bit odd, but I stuck with the discussion because it centered on the cost of attending college.

The panel opened with a bit of news that apparently came out of Stanford today as that university announced that for students from families making less than $100,000, there would be no student loans or tuition. Those from families making less than $60,000 would pay no room and board either.

GWU President Steve Knapp was concerned about "debt burden" of graduates and felt that it impacted career choices, deterring some from taking lower paying public service jobs. He said for students that leave his school with debt it averages $29,000 and he has a goal of reducing that figure to $20,000.

Let me say at the outset that I was quite fortunate and went to American University on a full academic scholarship, so I left school with no student loans to pay. That's one of the reasons why I have been an active supporter of the university in recent years as I have achieved success in business. I'm proud of the fact that I have now given more to the school than I would have paid in tuition.

I also want to acknowledge that the cost of higher education does seem to be growing at a significant rate and it clearly presents a challenge to many students. That's why much of my giving focuses on funding scholarship programs at AU.

However, one of the panelists (Jared Bernstein from the Economic Policy Institute) noted the "college premium" that economists recognize has increased quite quickly in recent years and, in fact, has doubled in the last generation. In other words, the amount of money earned by college graduates is growing very quickly as well.

This all made me wonder whether some of the concern is a bit overblown and whether, in fact, some college debt might actually be a good thing. One of the cornerstones of the American economy is the notion that it takes risk to gain rewards. The notion of "get rich quick" schemes, happily, doesn't prevail, but rather the idea that one must invest to reap rewards dominates.

Now, this isn't merely an effort to ensure that Christopher Penn remains gainfully employed at the Student Loan Network, but rather an honest attempt to examine what the right public policy decision might be. But perhaps we shouldn't view college as an entitlement for which schools and government must work to reduce the cost as close to zero as possible (understanding it won't likely be very close). Perhaps, instead, we should address the concern that Steve Knapp outlined at the start of the conversation of limiting job choices of college graduates.

The idea, then, would be not to focus as much effort on the cost of college education itself, but rather seeking some way to balance the cost after graduation. If someone takes a lucrative job and can easily pay off student loan debt, there's no real reason for government to subsidize the cost. But if they take a job in an underserved area of public service, for instance, then there's a better reason to address that debt burden.

Of course, it would be important to avoid a perverse incentive to take certain low-paying jobs simply to gain a subsidy. Instead, it seems to me you would want to use it to lure students to become teachers at inner city schools or take other similar posts where college graduates may be less inclined to go. 

As a conservative, I have a distaste for government manipulation of individual choices, so I'm treading on thin ice here (but that's what happens when you think out loud as I am in this post). So here's where you come in. Am I nuts? Is there a nugget of value to my ramblings? What say you?

Photographing Tonight's Lunar Eclipse

NY Institute of Photography offers up a very detailed article on how to take a good photograph of tonight's lunar eclipse. If it isn't too ferociously cold this evening, I might give it a shot myself.

Media Disruption Launched

If you read this blog, you know that I am fascinated by media and disruption. So it was natural that Eaglon's next publication should be focused on just that intersection and named Media Disruption. There's already a bunch of good stuff up there (in my humble opinion), including an in-depth profile of Rafat Ali's ContentNext Media led by his flagship blog PaidContent (it may be the most comprehensive individual piece about Rafat's media empire to date, based on my survey of other articles).

Of course, it's not even 24 hours old and there are also articles about Martha Stewart and Emeril getting hitched, the "web-ization" of network TV scheduling, and more.

Check out Media Disruption and stay on top of the latest on this hot topic.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Machine vs. Human Aggregation and Analysis

People frequently inquire as to my perspective on the use of computer automation to conduct content analysis and/or aggregation. This is certainly a topic I have given considerable consideration to in my role as founder of CustomScoop, a media intelligence company. When we started out in 2000, the primary demand we had from clients was to be able to know what was being said about their company, products, and competitors. Today, an increasing number accept the data as the foundation, but want tools and services layered on top of the basic information to develop sophisticated analysis that leads to meaningful intelligence.

So what's my answer? In short, I believe computers have a role to play -- but in assisting humans rather than replacing them. The nuances of language and the understanding of communities and influence that humans develop over time simply cannot be replicated in computers with the same level of accuracy. And there's the rub. Accuracy. If you are willing to accept considerably less accuracy, computers can often meet those needs. But show me one customer who would accept a Wall Street Journal story categorized as positive based solely on vocabulary when a human would correctly discern its negative impact. Many would be willing to accept inaccuracy at some level -- but only if they could control where the inaccuracy occurs.

Of course, judging sentiment of media articles isn't the only role that computers can play in automated analysis and aggregation. For instance, some companies attempt to use computer algorithms and word analysis to do such things as:

  • determine the demographic profile of a blogger
  • assess the influence of a blog or group of blogs
  • predict patterns of message dissemination
  • eliminate duplicate articles
  • cultivate recommended reading lists

These are all admirable goals and some have seen more success than others.

Let's take a look at a few examples.

TechMeme and Digg. I enjoy both of these sites for their ability to help bubble up interesting content. In the case of TechMeme, it acts as sort of a Cliff's Notes version of the day's tech news. Digg serves a much broader range of purposes. In both cases, a computer algorithm assesses the activity of humans to make automated editorial decisions. TechMeme gauges bloggers' linking behavior (along with other undisclosed variables) to reach its conclusions; Digg takes user votes and applies mathematical analysis to judge velocity and other factors in creating its rankings.

But in looking at both sites on a regular basis, it would be hard to argue that a human editor might not be able to polish the results just a bit and make them that much more useful. Some might argue that would introduce bias to the equation, but at least it would be overt bias, whereas secret formulas can be hard to assess. With news outlets that have an overt slant, everybody knows what to expect. Those that attempt to achieve neutrality rarely do so, thus misleading audiences.

Media Analysis. It is not for me to name names here, as some of the companies involved could be considered to be competitive with CustomScoop, thus potentially tainting the specifics of my comments. Rather, let me address the key problem with complete automation here.

As I noted above, accuracy leaves much to be desired. KD Paine, a widely respected leader in the field of public relations measurement, often makes the point that computers cannot effectively identify sarcasm, for instance. That's but one of the challenges of linguistic analysis. There's more, of course. Computers have a much harder time evaluating the overall impact of an article. A somewhat extreme example that helps illustrate the challenge would be an obituary of a civic leader that fairly identifies many of his accomplishments over the years, but leads with a paragraph indicating that he was accused of being a child molester, but never formally charged. A human would know that most people would walk away from the article with a negative impression, whereas a computer might well judge that since 90% of the facts were positive, so too was the article.

Bottom Line. Fundamentally, I believe the most successful approaches will be those that seek to facilitate the role of humans in aggregation and analysis. A role for experts continues to exist, even with the best computer algorithms currently available.

Neither Love Nor Hate Should Guide Your Business Decisions

Infatuation and antipathy make very poor business partners. One cannot divorce decision-making from emotions entirely, but one must endeavor to limit the influence of the heart over the head. How many times have we all made choices in the heat of the moment that we later regret -- in business or otherwise?

Take, for instance, the case of Yahoo and Microsoft. One might reasonably inquire whether Jerry Yang and the board of Yahoo have permitted typical Silicon Valley dislike of Microsoft to cloud their judgment on the proposed acquisition. Certainly, legitimate reasons may exist to spurn the current offer; indeed, a union may not ultimately make good business sense for either party. We must wait to see how it pans out, but certainly many commentators have allowed anti-Microsoft sentiment to invade their assessments of the transaction.

Love, too, can be a dangerous thing. Often, fans of Steve Jobs and Apple find themselves criticized for embracing every new product that comes out of the innovative company. From my own personal observations, I certainly see instances in which the desire for all things Apple outweighs the sound judgment that might otherwise be applied by smart individuals.

Powerful emotions need not only apply to the big boys, however. I know that in the course of my own business experience I have found a hair-trigger itch to reject or embrace deals based merely on who I might be dealing with. Close friends know that there a special few individuals that cause my blood to boil, but I must work with them from time to time despite that fact. Recognizing this weakness, I often work to have a business partner or another executive take the lead in important discussions with those people in order to help guard against knee-jerk judgment and encourage more open, clear thinking.

It isn't easy. We're all too human when we permit emotions to play too significant a role. And there's certainly a role for emotion -- just not in decision-making. Emotions can help motivate us. They can sober us. But we must seek to ensure that neither love nor hate guide business decision-making.

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What Is Pardon the Disruption?

  • As founder & CEO of CustomScoop, I have a special interest in the intersection of technology and PR/marketing. In addition, as a serial entrepreneur and angel investor, I cover those topics, as well as an occasional post on the gadgets I love.